Critical insights to the Business Aviation and Fleet industry have just been announced in the 2016 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast from Penton’s Aviation Week Network (http://www.aviationweek.com/2016Forecasts), the largest multimedia information and analytics provider for the global aviation, aerospace and defense industry.
The world’s western produced in-service business fleets will increase from 31,000 aircraft in 2016 to nearly 38,000 aircraft at the end of 2025, a growth rate of 2.3% annually. Additionally, the 10-year demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) in the business market is expected to be $121.8 billion.
“The 2016 forecast expectations show that the North American market will dominate the world sales and MRO demand for years to come; and will also have a vibrant fleet replacement cycle with nearly 3,400 aircraft retirements and over 8,000 aircraft deliveries,” said Brian Kough, Director of Forecasts & Analysis with Aviation Week Intelligence Network. “Latin America, despite some rough current economic conditions, is expected to be the 3rd largest market for deliveries superseded by Western Europe, the 2nd largest sales market. Our actual delivery estimates have diminished noticeably this year compared to last, but we still feel sales will be pretty solid given the current economic, financial and geopolitical conditions.”
Western Europe will be an area to focus on as the MRO demand grows at twice the rate of North America and it has the 3rd largest regional fleet. Overall, the business MRO market is expected to grow from $10.2 billion in 2016 to $13.8 billion annually in 2025, a 3.5% annual growth rate. Within the MRO business, modifications and component MRO is expected to grow the fastest at 4.4% and 3.6% respectively. Component MRO demand will be the largest MRO expense category over the forecast period reaching $33.2 billion.
The 2016 Fleet & MRO Forecast series are comprehensive, year-by-year projections that provide in-depth data through 2025, covering commercial, military, helicopter and business aviation fleets and their MRO requirements. As the most comprehensive and reliable forecasts for the global (MRO) market, industry-leading Aviation Week uses its research teams and detailed in-house aircraft databases to incorporate research, analysis and various industry leaders’ findings to produce each of the four forecasts. Access to the raw data is available for targeted, customizable reports. More information can be found at www.aviationweek.com/2016Forecasts.
Other key findings from the 2016 Business Aviation Forecast Summary include:
Ultra Long Range category jets will grow fleet share the fastest along with Super Mid Size category aircraft growing nearly as fast ending the year 2025 with nearly 3,200 aircraft. Very Light Jets will grow its category share rapidly to over 1,500 aircraft over the next 10 years.
China, with a small base fleet, will grow the fastest fleet at 9% and MRO requirements despite economic and political pressures; the largest market, North America, will grow at 2.3% rate.
North America’s in-service fleet share will remain constant during the forecast period at 63.5% while Western Europe will increase its share to 12.5% of the world’s fleet. Latin America and Africa will lose fleet share, with Eastern Europe and China gaining fleet share.
The top five aircraft deliveries are expected to be: KING AIR 300/350, PILATUS PC-12, GULFSTREAM G650, CHALLENGER 300/350 and PHENOM 300.