Although some forecasters predicted a long-awaited recovery in the business aviation industry sometime in 2011, Forecast International’s latest analysis says the decline will continue through the coming year and not turn around until 2012. “The business jet market is not yet in recovery, but the worst of the market downturn is over,” said Raymond Jaworowski, the firm’s senior aerospace analyst. “Order intake remains sluggish, but the massive wave of order cancellations and delivery deferrals experienced in late 2008 and much of 2009 has receded. The market is no longer in freefall.” He said backlogs have declined sharply due to cancellations and deferrals but there are orders to keep the scaled-back operations at most OEMs on life support.
As we’ve reported extensively, Forecast International says the top end of the market is fairing better than the small-to-medium sectors. The firm is saying there are “signs of recovery” in the big-jet class and it’s being fueled in part by the announcement of new products. The Gulfstream G650 and Embraer Legacy 650 are attracting customers and Bombardier recently announced ultra-long-range Global 7000 and 8000. There is also a strong indication that Dassault will announce resumption of work on its super midsize SMS sometime in the next year.